In March, output from the alliance’s 19 members with quotas was up by a mere 40 kb/d, far below the planned 400 kb/d increase, and 1.5 mb/d below their target. Insisting that no supply shortage exists, OPEC+ countries agreed on 31 March to stick with a modest monthly output increment for May. Crude prices have eased by nearly $10/bbl following announcements of the US and IEA stock releases, with ICE Brent last trading at around $104/bbl. The record volumes will provide welcome relief to an already tight oil market that’s facing heightened uncertainty amid the multitude of repercussions stemming from sanctions and embargoes targeted at Russia by the international community and consumer boycotts. IEA member countries agreed on 1 April to tap their emergency reserves for the second time in the space of a month, this time to the tune of 120 mb. Oil markets struggling to navigate supply losses and dislocations stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine received much needed support from US and IEA coordinated stock releases.
Benchmark crude prices are now back to near pre-invasion levels but remain troublingly high and are a serious threat for the global economic outlook. Futures prices for ICE Brent were trading at around $104/bbl as this Report went to print, down nearly $10/bbl following IEA collective stock release actions and a massive US release from the strategic petroleum reserve.Preliminary data show a build in OECD industry stocks of 8.8 mb for March. OECD total industry stocks fell by 42.2 mb to 2 611 mb in February, nearly double the seasonal trend. Global oil inventories have decreased for 14 consecutive months, with February stocks 714 mb below the end-2020 level and OECD countries accounting for 70% of the decline.Overall, 2022 runs are forecast to gain 3 mb/d y-o-y, but will remain below 2017 levels. This would allow product inventories to see the first build in two years, offering some respite to the tight market. Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 4.4 mb/d from April to August due to new capacity and normal seasonal gains.Despite the disruption to Russian oil supplies, lower demand expectations, steady output increases from OPEC+ members along with the US and other non OPEC+ countries, and massive stock releases from IEA member countries should prevent a sharp deficit from developing.
Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5 mb/d in April, with shut-ins projected to accelerate to around 3 mb/d from May.
0 kommentar(er)
